Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
