A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
